*Update*: Ethiopia votes – Abiy Ahmed's party regarded as certain winner

Ethiopia held parliamentary and regional elections on Monday – the first since the Pretoria peace agreement, which formally ended the Tigray conflict in 2022. According to observers, the result is a foregone conclusion: Bloomberg reports that Abiy Ahmed is expected to secure another five-year term following the ballot, after his career was initially marked by far-reaching reforms and later burdened by civil war and regional tensions.

The vote took place under considerable restrictions. In the northern Tigray region and parts of the Amhara region, no elections were held because the security situation did not permit it, as Al Jazeera reports. This meant millions of eligible voters were effectively excluded – a circumstance that critics view as a further sign of the country's fragile state.

Modernisation and forced relocations

Meanwhile, in the capital Addis Ababa, the government presents a different picture: large-scale urban redevelopment projects are intended to demonstrate the country's modernisation, yet France 24 reports that these measures are often linked to forced relocations and make the gap between state theatre and the everyday reality of many Ethiopians visible.

Analysts expect a clear victory for the Prosperity Party. Abiy, in power since 2018 and awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019, now faces criticism: opposition groups and human rights organisations accuse him of authoritarian rule and suppression of dissent. Relevant opposition parties are boycotting the election or have been prevented from participating, as RFI notes. International election observers have raised concerns about the fairness of the process.

Stability and reconciliation in question

The ballot takes place in a country that, despite the ceasefire in Tigray, continues to be shaken by armed conflicts in the Amhara and Oromia regions. For many Ethiopians, the question of who wins is less important than whether stability and reconciliation are achievable at all after years of civil war.