*Update*: UN warns of strong El Niño — 80 percent probability from June

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued an urgent climate warning: With a probability of 80 percent, an El Niño event will develop between June and August that could be moderate to strong according to the WMO. Tagesspiegel reports that the UN agency explicitly warns of rising temperatures and more extreme weather events worldwide.

The basis for this assessment is provided by unusually high sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific. Zeit Online explains that El Niño amplifies global warming already driven by climate change – with direct consequences for food prices, droughts and floods in various regions. Parts of South America, Australia and Southeast Asia would be particularly affected, while Europe would have to reckon with milder but unpredictable weather patterns.

Forecasts through summer 2026

The forecasts extend into summer 2026: Stern writes that the phenomenon could persist until November and possibly make 2027 the warmest year since weather records began. Experts are still puzzling over exactly how the event will affect individual regions – uncertainty about intensity and duration remains high.

Meteorologists are also sounding the alarm in the Southern Hemisphere: stuff.co.nz reports that weather forecasts for New Zealand show a 95 percent probability of El Niño development by the end of winter – with drier conditions in many parts of the country and the potential for a historically significant event by summer.

The WMO emphasizes that El Niño alone is not responsible for all coming extreme events, but acts as an amplifier: In combination with long-term climate change, the phenomenon significantly increases the probability of heat waves, wildfires and heavy rainfall. Handelsblatt highlights that supply chains and commodity markets – from cocoa to wheat – are already reacting to the forecasts.