*Update*: Ethiopia votes – Abiy Ahmed's party seen as certain winner

Ethiopia held parliamentary and regional elections on Monday – the first since the Pretoria peace agreement, which formally ended the Tigray conflict in 2022. According to observers, the outcome is a foregone conclusion: Bloomberg reports that Abiy Ahmed is expected to begin another five-year term following the ballot, after his career was initially marked by far-reaching reforms and later burdened by civil war and regional tensions.

The vote took place under significant restrictions. In the northern Tigray region and parts of the Amhara region, no elections were held because the security situation did not permit it, as Al Jazeera reports. This effectively excluded millions of eligible voters – a circumstance that critics view as another sign of the country's fragile state.

Modernization and forced relocations

Meanwhile, in the capital Addis Ababa, the government presents a different image: large-scale urban redevelopment projects are meant to demonstrate the country's modernization, but France 24 reports that these measures are often linked to forced relocations and make the gap between state spectacle and everyday reality for many Ethiopians visible.

Analysts expect a clear victory for the Prosperity Party. Abiy, in power since 2018 and awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019, now faces criticism: opposition groups and human rights organizations accuse him of authoritarian rule and suppression of dissent. Relevant opposition parties are boycotting the election or have been prevented from participating, as RFI notes. International election observers have expressed concerns about the fairness of the process.

Stability and reconciliation in question

The ballot takes place in a country that, despite the ceasefire in Tigray, continues to be shaken by armed conflicts in the Amhara and Oromia regions. For many Ethiopians, the question of who wins is less important than whether stability and reconciliation are achievable at all after years of civil war.