*Update*: WMO sees 80 percent chance of El Niño by August 2026

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has put the probability of an El Niño event between June and August 2026 at 80 percent. The Guardian reports that UN experts are calling on the world to prepare for the imminent return of the weather phenomenon, which amplifies extreme weather events globally.

Scientists could declare the official onset of the pattern within the coming days, as the Financial Times explains. Crucially: climate conditions created by human-caused climate change will significantly intensify the impacts of this El Niño compared to earlier events. Warmer baseline conditions in the atmosphere and oceans mean that even a moderate-strength event can have unusually severe consequences.

Warning of heat waves and droughts

The WMO is explicitly warning, according to Health Policy Watch, of an increase in heat waves, droughts, and wildfires in the coming months. Regions in Southeast Asia, Australia, parts of Africa, and South America are particularly at risk, where El Niño typically suppresses precipitation and raises temperatures. At the same time, flood risk is rising in other areas.

At the regional level, uncertainties are already becoming concrete: in the western United States, for example, wildfire risk rises in June initially, while it remains unclear whether El Niño will later have a dampening effect in summer through increased moisture. Phys.org analyzes how climate change is making the classic regional patterns of El Niño increasingly unpredictable – models based on historical data are losing reliability.

New temperature records expected

For global temperature development, the event is particularly significant: the past years were already record years without a pronounced El Niño. A strong event could push annual average temperatures in 2026 and 2027 to new highs, as Channel News Asia notes. The WMO emphasizes that governments and disaster management authorities must act now to activate early warning systems and protect vulnerable populations.